Central Scotland 2016 Results, Analysis and 2021 Projections

For elections to the Scottish Parliament, Scotland is divided into 8 Regions. Each Region can contain 8 to 10 Constituencies. So everyone in Scotland gets 2 votes. A Constituency Vote and a Regional Vote. Normally people vote in both, but sometimes they only vote in one. Only voting in one does not spoil your other vote.

Constituency Vote (Vote 1 – Constituency Ballot Paper)

ConstituenciesLabourSNPLib DemConsGreenSNP %Total VotesValid VotesTurnout %
Airdrie and Shotts7,76213,9546934164-52.5153,91226,57349.3
Coatbridge and Chryston982613,6054232,868161248.0253,19228,33453.3
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth7,53717,0156883,068-60.1149,98128,30856.6
East Kilbride8,39219,37110095,857-55.9461,14934,62956.6
Falkirk East8,40816,72010546,342-51.4160,27132,52454.0
Falkirk West6,98018,2609665,877-56.9159,81232,08353.6
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse8,50813,9458365,596-48.2857,66228,88550.1
Motherwell and Wishaw9,06815,2917613,991-52.5357,06229,11151.0
Uddingston and Bellshill9,61514,4248114,693-48.8257,56529,54351.3
Total Seats Awarded0900052.72510606269,99052.9

Regional Vote (Vote 2 – Regional Ballot Paper)

Total Votes – 510,606, Valid Votes – 270,706, Turnout – 53.02% and SNP Vote Share – 47.68%

Regional VotesLabourSNPLib DemConsGreenD'Hondt Adjustment
(Regional Party Totals ÷ Number of Seats Already Won + 1)
Regional Party Totals67,103129,0825,01543,60212,722For Round 1 (SNP - 129,082 ÷ 10)
Round 167,10312,9085,01543,60212,722Lab Win Round 1 - For Round 2 (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 2)
Round 233,55212,9085,01543,60212,722Cons Win Round 2 - For Round 3 (Con - 43,602 ÷ 2)
Round 333,55212,9085,01521,80112,722Lab Win Round 3 - For Round 4 - (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 3)
Round 422,36812,9085,01521,80112,722Lab Win Round 4 - For Round 5 - (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 4)
Round 516,77612,9085,01521,80112,722Cons Win Round 5 - For Round 6 (Con - 43,602 ÷ 3)
Round 616,77612,9085,01514,53412,722Lab Win Round 6 - For Round 7 - (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 5)
Round 713,42112,9085,01514,53412,722Cons Win Round 7
Total Seats Awarded40030
  • The Regional Vote however is affected by how many Seats a Party wins in the Constituencies.
  • Regional Seats are awarded by dividing Regional Party Totals by the Number of Seats already Won + 1 (D’Hondt System) over 7 Rounds. This might look complicated but it’s really just simple adding and dividing.
  • The basic premise is that if a Party does well with Constituency Seats, the System (D’Hondt) makes it very difficult for them to do well with Regional Seats.

 

What can we say about the 2016 Election Results?

  • In 2016 the SNP won 9 Constituency Seats so their Regional Vote was divided by 9 + 1 (D’Hondt) = 10 from Round 1 going forward.
  • Despite having ‘by far’ the largest number of regional votes the SNP won ‘0’ regional seats in Central Scotland.
  • Unionist Parties however shared all the Regional Seats with the Tories winning the last one with 14,534 votes.
  • That meant in 2016 the SNP would have needed 145,350 regional votes (an extra 16,268 votes) to win the last regional seat from the Tories in Central Scotland (a 12.6% increase).
  • This is calculated as follows: (129,082 + 16,268 = 145,350 regional votes – 145,350 regional votes ÷ 10 (9 Constituency Seats + 1 (D’Hondt) = 14,535 regional votes).

2021 Projections For Additional Independence Parties Running on the Regional Vote

What might happen if another Independence Party ran on the Regional Vote and encouraged voters to vote for them instead of the SNP?

Regional VotesLabourSNPLib DemConsGreenISPD'Hondt Adjustment
(Regional Party Totals ÷ Number of Seats Already Won + 1)
Regional Party Totals67,103114,5475,01543,60212,72214,535For Round 1 (SNP - 114,547 ÷ 10)
Round 167,10311,4545,01543,60212,72214,535Lab Win Round 1 - For Round 2 (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 2)
Round 233,55211,4545,01543,60212,72214,535Con Win Round 2 - For Round 3 (Con - 43,602 ÷ 2)
Round 333,55211,4545,01521,80112,72214,535Lab Win Round 3 - For Round 4 - (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 3)
Round 422,36811,4545,01521,80112,72214,535Lab Win Round 4 - For Round 5 - (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 4)
Round 516,77611,4545,01521,80112,72214,535Con Win Round 5 - For Round 6 (Con - 43,602 ÷ 3)
Round 616,77611,4545,01514,53412,72214,535Lab Win Round 6 - For Round 7 - (Lab - 67,103 ÷ 5)
Round 713,42111,4545,01514,53412,72214,535ISP Wins Round 7
Total Seats Awarded400201
  • Current Polling projects the SNP is on 52% Constituencies (48.85% in 2016) and 44% Regional (44.65% in 2016). The difference between the SNP vote in Constituencies and Regions is historic and usual because voters have more choice to express opinion on the Regional Ballot.
  • Based on current polling the SNP is again projected to win 9 Constituency Seats in Central Scotland in 2021 meaning their Regional Vote would be divided by 9 + 1 (D’Hondt) = 10. Using 2016 as a benchmark, the SNP would again need 145,350 Regional votes (an extra 16,268 votes) to win a Regional Seat in Central  Scotland in 2021.
  • In 2016 ‘BothVotesSNP’ did not work and given current polling it will certainly not work in 2021 either. If SNP Votes transfer to other Independence Parties then Independence MSP’s will get elected instead of Unionists.
  • If all Independence voters voted for the SNP in the Constituencies, and the SNP withdrew candidates from the Regional Vote, Independence and not an individual Party would be the winner.