Scottish Parliament Polling for May 2021 Elections

On this page are the latest Scottish Parliament election forecasts for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.  2021 forecasts are directly compared to 2016 results based on numerous polls conducted over the last 5 years.

Here are the polling averages of the polls  together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2021 Scottish Parliament election polling average is calculated is available at Election Polling

SNP Majority Win

Summary Polling Projections

PartySeatsSeat Changes
20162021GainsLossesNet
SNP6371+11-3+8
Conservatives3126+2-7-5
Labour24180-6-6
Green69+4-1+3
Liberal Democrat55+1-10

Scottish Constituency Polling Projections

PartyVotesSeatsSeat Changes
20162021Change20162021GainsLossesNet
SNP46.50%52.57%+6.07%5969+100+10
Conservative22.02%23.00%+0.98%710-6-6
Labour22.56%15.29%-7.28%300-3-3
Liberal Democrat7.82%5.00%-2.82%430-1-1
Green0.58%2.71%+2.14%00000

Scottish Regional Polling Projections

PartyVotesSeatsSeat Changes
20162021Change20162021GainsLossesNet
SNP41.72%45.86%+4.14%42+1-3-2
Conservative22.93%21.71%-1.22%2425+2-1+1
Labour19.07%15.14%-3.93%21180-3-3
Green6.58%8.57%+1.99%69+4-1+3
Liberal Democrat5.22%6.00%+0.78%12+10+1
UKIP2.03%2.03%0.00%00000
Other0.00%0.00%0.00%00000

Scottish Polls

In the following section are the most recent Scottish Parliament election polls for the next Scottish Parliament election in May 2021 ordered from newest to oldest. These are split between Constituency Polls and Regional Polls. 

Constituency Polls

Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightSNPConsLabLDGRNLead
21-Feb-21Ipsos MORI / STV News1,0311.005223155329
09-Feb-21Savanta ComRes / The Scotsman1,00215423165231
22-Jan-21Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,0590.15220176332
13-Jan-21Survation / Scot Goes Pop1,000-5119199-32
13-Jan-21SavantaComRes / The Scotsman1,016-5319186-34
15-Dec-20SavantaComRes / The Scotsman1,013-5520166-35
09-Dec-20Survation1,010-5320206133
26-Nov-20Ipsos MORI / STV News1,006-5522146133
11-Nov-20Panelbase / Scot Goes Pop1,020-5321185332
10-Nov-20YouGov1,089-5619156237
03-Nov-20Survation1,071-5419188-35
09-Oct-20Ipsos MORI / STV News1,045-5818138140
09-Oct-20SavantaComRes1,003-5023186-27
21-Sep-20JL Partners / Politico1,016-5819138239
07-Sep-20Survation1,018-5320187-33
13-Aug-20SavantaComRes1,008-5124176-27
10-Aug-20YouGov / The Times1,142-5720148137
03-Jul-20Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,026-5520156335
05-Jun-20Panelbase / Scot Goes Pop1,022-5321196232
05-May-20Panelbase1,086-5323155330
27-Apr-20YouGov1,095-5423128231
26-Mar-20Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,023-5126146325
31-Jan-20Panelbase / Scot Goes Pop1,016-5026147324
22-Jan-20Survation / Progress Scotland1,019-5123177-28
06-Dec-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,020-4326198217
03-Dec-19YouGov / The Times1,002-46261411120
22-Nov-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,009-4326179217
11-Oct-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,003-42211910321
03-Sep-19YouGov / The Times1,059-45231312222
20-Jun-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,024-42201611322
17-May-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,021-4120188321
26-Apr-19YouGov / The Times1,029-4622167324
24-Apr-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,018-4022206318
06-Mar-19Panelbase / Wings Over Scotland1,002-4127198314
05-Dec-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,028-4125236316
07-Nov-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,050-3927246-12
21-Oct-18Survation / Daily Record1,017-3826259-12
05-Oct-18Survation / SNP1,013-4424238-20
04-Oct-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,024-4126216315
02-Oct-18Survation / Sunday Post1,036-4324239-19
10-Jul-18Survation--4324219-19
14-Jun-18Panelbase1,021-4028246212
05-Jun-18YouGov / The Times1,075-4127226214
28-Mar-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,037-4028226312
29-Jan-18Survation / Daily Record1,019-4225256-17
17-Jan-18YouGov / The Times1,002-3826237312
05-Dec-17Survation / Sunday Post1,006-3924287-11
30-Nov-17Survation / Daily Record1,017-3924258-14
05-Oct-17YouGov / The Times1,135-4225255217
12-Sep-17Survation / Scottish Daily Mail1,016-4226257-16
07-Sep-17Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,021-4228226214

Regional Polls

Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightSNPConsLabLDGRNUKIPOtherLead
21-Feb-21Ipsos MORI / STV News1,0311.0047221468--25
09-Feb-21Savanta ComRes / The Scotsman1,0021432118610--22
22-Jan-21Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,0590.146201668--26
13-Jan-21Survation / Scot Goes Pop1,000-401719911--21
13-Jan-21SavantaComRes / The Scotsman1,016-441618811--26
15-Dec-20SavantaComRes / The Scotsman1,013-422017712--22
09-Dec-20Survation1,010-411820710-121
11-Nov-20Panelbase / Scot Goes Pop1,020-46201868--26
10-Nov-20YouGov1,089-47201367--27
03-Nov-20Survation1,071-4317197101224
09-Oct-20Ipsos MORI / STV News1,045-48181489--30
09-Oct-20SavantaComRes1,003-412118711--20
21-Sep-20JL Partners / Politico1,016-53191385--34
07-Sep-20Survation1,018-4218188102224
13-Aug-20SavantaComRes1,008-432117810--22
10-Aug-20YouGov / The Times1,142-47211476-126
03-Jul-20Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,026-50181568--32
05-Jun-20Panelbase / Scot Goes Pop1,022-48191687--29
05-May-20Panelbase1,086-48221575--26
27-Apr-20YouGov1,095-45231278--22
26-Mar-20Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,023-48261366--22
31-Jan-20Panelbase / Scot Goes Pop1,016-47251477--22
22-Jan-20Survation / Progress Scotland1,019-382119991217
06-Dec-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,020-38261896-212
03-Dec-19YouGov / The Times1,002-3725141080212
22-Nov-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,009-39251796-314
03-Sep-19YouGov / The Times1,059-3920111381519
20-Jun-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,024-392016107-619
17-May-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,021-371918872618
26-Apr-19YouGov / The Times1,029-3720157102517
24-Apr-19Panelbase / The Sunday Times1,018-372219772415
06-Mar-19Panelbase / Wings Over Scotland1,002-362619963-10
05-Dec-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,028-382622671-12
07-Nov-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,050-37262266--11
21-Oct-18Survation / Daily Record1,017-32232399--9
05-Oct-18Survation / SNP1,013-40252284--15
04-Oct-18Panelbase / Sunday Times1,024-352620872-9
02-Oct-18Survation / Sunday Post1,036-3221238105-9
10-Jul-18Survation--33192110115-12
14-Jun-18Panelbase1,021-362623671-10
05-Jun-18YouGov / The Times1,075-322621791-6
29-Jan-18Survation / Daily Record1,019-332323893-10
17-Jan-18YouGov / The Times1,002-3225227103-7
05-Dec-17Survation / Sunday Post1,006-32212410103-8
30-Nov-17Survation / Daily Record1,017-332225883-8
05-Oct-17YouGov / The Times1,135-352324661-11
12-Sep-17Survation / Scottish Daily Mail1,016-3121251093-6
14-Mar-17YouGov / The Times1,028-4025145122-15
29-Nov-16YouGov / The Times1,134-3924146114-15
04-Oct-16BMG Research1,010-432016783-23
31-Aug-16YouGov / The Times1,039-452115692-24